NASCAR 2026: Denny Hamlin sends postseason warning to struggling Hendrick Motorsports star

Denny Hamlin has warned that Alex Bowman faces an uphill battle to make it into the postseason, as the Hendrick Motorsports driver prepares to miss his second straight race.

Bowman is still dealing with lingering effects of vertigo, which saw him replaced by a substitute driver midway through the race at COTA at the start of the month, and then replaced by Anthony Alfredo for the entirety of the next race at Phoenix.

Justin Allgaier will step into the No. 48 car at Las Vegas this weekend as the 32-year-old continues to recover, meaning that Bowman will leave the first five weeks with a total of 23 points.

That's roughly the equivalent of alternating 32nd and 33rd place finishes and picking up no stage points – or one 18th place finish and four 36th places. The point is: it's a bad situation to be in.

Hamlin: Bowman must improve upon return

While it's likely that Bowman will receive a medical waiver from NASCAR to remain eligible for the Chase, that eligibility is fast looking as though it will be irrelevant.

He is already 77 points behind 16th-placed Brad Keselowski and the postseason cut line, a number which can only increase this weekend – possibly into three figures, foreshadowing a steep uphill battle for the rest of the year.

While Hamlin, speaking on his Actions Detrimental podcast this week, didn't rule out Bowman coming back and racing his way into the Chase, he warned that it would take a leap in performance level to stand a real chance after the abolition of the 'win and in' system.

“I think if you took his median performance over the regular season, you would say that it’s over," the Joe Gibbs Racing star said. "If he comes back and runs better than his averages, I think he could make it, which means you’ve got to get a lot of stage points.”

“He’s going to need to probably win a race. Then I think he has a shot. A lot of points can be made up. You can’t just finish good. He’s going to have to run good and finish good, and there is a difference."

NASCAR Cup Series standings after Phoenix

Here is how the full Cup Series points standings look after last weekend's racing action at Phoenix.

**NASCAR Cup Series standings after Phoenix**
Pos	Driver	Manufacturer	Points (Stage)	Wins	Top 5s	Top 10s
1	Tyler Reddick	Toyota	225 (31)	3	3	4
2	Ryan Blaney	Ford	165 (44)	1	1	3
3	Bubba Wallace	Toyota	153 (40)	0	0	3
4	Chase Elliott	Chevrolet	128 (25)	0	1	2
5	Shane van Gisbergen	Chevrolet	116 (16)	0	1	2
6	Christopher Bell	Toyota	113 (25)	0	2	2
7	Joey Logano	Ford	113 (31)	0	1	1
8	Michael McDowell	Chevrolet	111 (19)	0	1	2
9	Chris Buescher	Ford	111 (23)	0	0	1
10	Kyle Larson	Chevrolet	109 (18)	0	1	2
11	William Byron	Chevrolet	108 (20)	0	0	1
12	Denny Hamlin	Toyota	107 (17)	0	1	2
13	AJ Allmendinger	Chevrolet	104 (15)	0	0	1
14	Carson Hocevar	Chevrolet	103 (27)	0	1	1
15	Ty Gibbs	Toyota	101 (20)	0	2	2
16	Brad Keselowski	Ford	100 (9)	0	1	1
17	Daniel Suarez	Chevrolet	98 (23)	0	1	1
18	Ryan Preece	Ford	92 (9)	0	0	1
19	Zane Smith	Ford	85 (10)	0	0	2
20	Kyle Busch	Chevrolet	81 (11)	0	0	0
21	Ty Dillon	Chevrolet	76 (0)	0	0	0
22	John H Nemechek	Toyota	75 (14)	0	0	0
23	Ross Chastain	Chevrolet	74 (11)	0	1	1
24	Riley Herbst	Toyota	72 (6)	0	0	1
25	Noah Gragson	Ford	66 (1)	0	0	0
26	Todd Gilliland	Ford	65 (11)	0	0	0
27	Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	Chevrolet	64 (4)	0	1	1
28	Erik Jones	Toyota	59 (0)	0	0	1
29	Austin Dillon	Chevrolet	56 (8)	0	0	0
30	Austin Cindric	Ford	52 (29)	0	0	0
31	Josh Berry	Ford	50 (5)	0	0	1
32	Cody Ware	Chevrolet	50 (0)	0	0	0
33	Chase Briscoe	Toyota	47 (8)	0	1	1
34	Connor Zilisch	Chevrolet	45 (2)	0	0	0
35	Cole Custer	Chevrolet	42 (3)	0	0	0
36	Alex Bowman	Chevrolet	23 (7)	0	0	0
37	Casey Mears	Ford	9 (3)	0	0	0
38	BJ McLeod	Chevrolet	3 (0)	0	0	0