There are only five weeks left in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season coming into this weekend's Brickyard 400, as Chase places start to get written in pen.
Already over the line to lock into the postseason are Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick and Ryan Blaney, aka 'everyone who's won multiple races this year (except Chase Elliott)'.
While many eyes are focused on the drivers on the bubble heading into Indianapolis – looking at you, Austin Cindric – we're going to have a look at who can lock themselves in, relax one iota and then start jostling for seeding and a few extra points at the Chase reset.
First, a brief reminder of what those at the top will be fighting for when things reset after Daytona...- 1st: 2100
- 2nd: 2075
- 3rd: 2065
- 4th: 2060
- 5th: 2055
- 6th: 2050
- 7th: 2045
- 8th: 2040
- 9th: 2035
- 10th: 2030
- 11th: 2025
- 12th: 2020
- 13th: 2015
- 14th: 2010
- 15th: 2005
- 16th: 2000
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Who can clinch a Chase spot at Indianapolis?
It's...Ty Gibbs!
Let's put aside for a moment that we'll go into the last four weeks of the season with at least 12 of the 16 Chase spots still up for grabs, and focus for a second on how impressive the 23-year-old has been this year.
Gibbs is sitting a comfortable fourth on points after having the breakout regular season his team has been waiting for, taking his first career race win and sitting behind only Hamlin and Reddick in top-five finishes with nine (and behind only Blaney's 15 top-ten finishes, with 14 of his own).
It'd be easy to credit his breakout to Toyota and JGR's car performance, but that falls flat somewhat when it's pointed out that Chase Briscoe and Christopher Bell, both of whom have made the Championship 4 in recent years, are more than 100 points behind him.
The No. 54 needs 'just' 47 points to lock into the postseason, which could come in the form of a race win (55 points minimum) or a combination of stage points, a fastest lap point and position points.
If he sweeps the stages and puts in the fastest lap around the iconic 2.5-mile track, Gibbs will be able to finish as low as 11th and secure himself a guaranteed position in the Chase.
On the flip side, if he finishes second in the race and doesn't get the fastest lap point, he'll need just 12 stage points to lock in.
Can anyone else lock into the Chase at Indianapolis?
Frankly, nobody else is even especially close. Chase Elliott would've struggled even without his caution misfortune at North Wilkesboro, but the points dropped there mean he's 121 points from a clinch scenario going into Sunday's race.
Kyle Larson needs 141 points, with Carson Hocevar and Briscoe requiring an extra 19 and 12 respectively. They won't be especially fearful of falling below the cut-line entirely at such a late stage, and will instead be looking to clamber over each other for those all-important Chase points.
Can anyone be eliminated from the Chase at Indianapolis?
Yes! Cody Ware is likely to be the first man on the chopping block barring an unexpectedly strong finish, while Connor Zilisch could well have his hopes end mathematically – although they ended in practical terms some time ago.
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