Another road course, another Shane van Gisbergen win. Everything going as expected, right? As it happens, not entirely. We'll get to that in a minute.

The Kiwi did leap back above the Chase cut-line with the race-high 63 points he picked up for the win and a pair of seventh-place stage finishes, holding off a fast-finishing Chase Briscoe in the dying laps.

As ever, there's plenty to take away from this weekend from the top of the field to the bottom, so let's get into it!

NASCAR RESULTS TODAY: Shane van Gisbergen takes dramatic win at Sonoma after huge JGR challenge

The Regression Monster has hit Tyler Reddick

Yeouch. Remember when Tyler Reddick had a 129-point lead over Denny Hamlin in the standings in May?

Here we are at the end of June, and Hamlin has become the first person not named Tyler Reddick to lead the points standings in 2026. Has Reddick turned back into a pumpkin? Has NASCAR decided to nerf the 23XI cars? Is it a secret, third thing?

It's a third thing alright, but it's not a secret. Reddick had the benefit of a lot of good luck in the first half of the regular season – even when he wrecked, it was at the line and he didn't lose places – and that's turned on its head lately. He's had some good runs spoiled and lost points because of it, because that's just what happens in a NASCAR season. This absolutely doesn't mean that he should be written off.

But...yeah, Denny Hamlin's now very much the favorite to take a first Cup Series championship at the age of 45.

SVG still has it...right?

Eight wins in 16 Cup Series road course races for Shane van Gisbergen, the best road course racer in NASCAR history. Unlike most of his other wins though, he had to fight hard for this one.

Chase Briscoe was right on the No. 97's rear bumper at the end of the race, and Van Gisbergen looked like he might – for the second time this year – be beaten outright at a road course. He...does still have it, right?

Tentatively, yes. The fact that he qualified sixth rather than first is a bit of a red herring too, having clearly beefed something on straight on the run up to and through Turn 1, with other drivers taking tenths of a second out of his time immediately at the start of their laps.

When he went out for a second lap, he was running a couple of tenths faster when he got loose, turned the car and abandoned the lap. That sixth-place start wasn't really a pace issue, it was a one-off goof issue.

Also...the Trackhouse cars are not good this year. That can't be helping.

Joe Gibbs Racing is a legitimate four-car team

Remember last year, when Denny Hamlin was mad at Ty Gibbs and he was being called a spoiled nepo hire who had no place in the No. 54? How fast the tides of NASCAR turn.

The youngest of the team's four drivers has had a career season out of almost nowhere, now sitting fourth in points after finishing third with a pair of stage victories in northern California on Sunday.

Denny Hamlin was the only JGR driver to finish outside the top five on Sunday – and even he was having a very creditable day when he got spun out at a restart and had to fight from the back of the pack. This is the sport's premier organization in 2026, and it barely looks close right now.

Take the under on Trackhouse drivers in the postseason

Speaking of the exact opposite of that...man, Trackhouse are in some strife this year.

Two Chase drivers looked like a realistic goal coming into 2026, but that appears almost unfeasibly lofty at this point. Van Gisbergen has made some great strides at ovals in the last year, but the fact remains that he's scoring 17.7 points a race outside road courses this year – a pace which translates to 24th place as things stand today.

Road courses do exist, which is why he has a buffer to the cut-line with eight regular season races to go, but his San Diego wreck was absolutely devastating, turning a potential 55+ point day into a one-point day. A 90-point buffer to the cut would have been workable. A 36-point gap, with only ovals left on the schedule, is very uncomfortable. It's a coin-flip, but the coin is weighted against the Kiwi.

Ross Chastain came into the season with Chase expectations too, but his pace just didn't come into the season with him. He sits 22nd in points, and has shown almost nothing to suggest that a late surge is coming.

As for Connor Zilisch...well.

Connor Zilisch finally makes it to Funkytown!

The teenager has finally got a top-ten finish in the NASCAR Cup Series! Zilisch's rookie season has been riddled with some of the worst luck a driver can faceplant into, but he finally pushed through at Sonoma and had a good old-fashioned solid points day.

It wasn't quite a repeat of the pace he showed at San Diego, COTA and Watkins Glen, but the rookie stayed out of trouble, wasn't hit by a meteor from the skies, and brought his car home for a career best Cup finish. After everything that's happened to him this year, that's probably worth celebrating.

NASCAR TODAY: Tyler Reddick toppled and Cup Series star takes dig at F1